“Although we expect market activity levels to remain flat into the first half of 2025, we are seeing signs of a positive shift in several key drivers of the downturn. Figures from macroeconomic forecasting bodies suggest a return to more normal inflation levels, falling interest rates and a generally strong economic outlook for all three Scandinavian countries,” says Kristoffer Eide Hoen, Director of business development and analysis at Veidekke.
Veidekke anticipates 1% growth in the Scandinavian contracting markets in 2025, and 7% growth in 2026. This follows estimated drops of 14% in 2024 and 3% in 2023.
The decline in market activity levels in recent years is an expected after-effect of strong cost inflation and interest-rate rises in 2022. Due to lengthy construction periods, it takes one to two years before such developments impact actual construction-industry activity levels, as can currently be observed in e.g. the sharp drops in residential project numbers.
“The downturn in Norway lagged three to four quarters behind developments in Sweden and Denmark, which have also shown earlier signs of recovery. In Norway, the downturn has been prolonged by generally higher interest rates and delayed cuts to the key policy rate,” explains Kristoffer Eide Hoen.
The proposals presented in Norway’s and Sweden’s draft national budgets for 2025 confirm the impression of a positive outlook for the infrastructure sector. In the transport infrastructure segment, high newbuild activity is accompanied by increased investment in road and railway maintenance. Future growth markets are expected to be the water supply, sewerage and energy infrastructure sectors, as well as defence. As expected, the draft budgets provide for significantly increased defence spending. Currently, few details are available on how increased funding for defence-related construction and civil engineering projects will be allocated, but this is expected to become clearer in the year ahead.
Despite a general drop in construction cost inflation, uncertainty still attaches to certain input factors with close ties to climate adaptation. For example, fly ash – which is used in the manufacture of concrete – has become much more expensive following the closure of coal-fired power stations in Europe. Both in the Nordic region and in other parts of Europe, ongoing bark beetle infestation has triggered a renewed rise in timber prices, despite falling construction activity. Although the primary scenario remains one of low inflation, account must be taken of increased risks related to the supply and cost of key input factors.
For more information, contact:
Kristoffer Eide Hoen, Director of business development and analysis, Veidekke ASA, +47 976 75 434, Kristoffer.Eide.Hoen@veidekke.no
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Veidekke is one of Scandinavia's largest contractors. In addition to undertaking all types of building and civil engineering assignments, the group also maintains roads and produces asphalt and aggregates. Veidekke emphasises stakeholder involvement and local experience. Its annual turnover is approximately NOK 43 billion, and half of its 8,000 employees own shares in the company. Veidekke is listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange, and has posted a profit every year since its inception in 1936.
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| Presentation market update autumn 2024 |